Sizing the Unknown: A Ground-Up Approach to Market Clarity
A case study in building the demand view when no data exists.
Maven Associates helps leaders prioritize investments, shape strategy, and capture opportunities others miss. Learn more at www.maven-associates.com.
Welcome back!
One of the patterns we are seeing more often right now is not about the quality of businesses coming to market. It is about the difficulty of proving the market around them.
More deal teams are evaluating platform opportunities in fragmented or under-mapped sectors where traditional market data is thin, category definitions are unclear, and third-party benchmarks simply do not exist.
That was the situation Angeles Equity Partners faced when evaluating Solid Surface Care, a national provider of surface maintenance services.
The business had strong operations and a repeatable model, but no clear answer to a basic question. How big is the market, really?
In this issue, we walk through how we built the fact base from scratch, sizing demand across 11 sectors and 25 cities, and what this kind of work reveals about the limits of traditional diligence when the data is not there.
Building the Market from Zero in a Field Services Deal
Angeles Equity Partners asked Maven to support diligence on Solid Surface Care, a national provider of surface maintenance services.
The company operated in a fragmented industry with little structured data and no clear third-party benchmarks.
The investment case hinged on a key question: how big is this market, really?
Solid’s core value proposition—route-based service delivery to multi-site customers—was strong. But with operations spanning everything from bank branches to telecom stores to healthcare clinics, there was no single source of truth on market size, density, or service frequency.
Our job was to build that view from the ground up.
To do that, we:
Scraped location-level data for national retail, banking, and healthcare brands
Estimated square footage and visit frequency by facility type
Mapped demand density across 11 verticals and 25 metro areas
Modeled revenue potential and margin variability by segment
The result was a segment-level demand map that supported the deal thesis and informed the go-to-market plan.
The analysis gave Angeles a grounded view of market potential—and gave the management team a roadmap they could use from day one.
The takeaway: When no data exists, diligence doesn’t stop. It just shifts into build mode.
Thinking through a deal? Let’s talk.
If you’re evaluating a platform in a fragmented category or wrestling with a fuzzy TAM, we can help.
Want to talk through a strategic decision? Send me a message on LinkedIn or visit maven-associates.com/contact-us to connect.
Why Fragmented Markets Require a Ground-Up Approach
Many diligence efforts assume the data already exists. But in fragmented or underdeveloped sectors, that assumption falls apart.
In the case of Solid Surface Care, the challenge wasn’t evaluating the business—it was proving the market. With no third-party reports, no comps, and no centralized customer base, Angeles Equity Partners needed a custom solution.
And they’re not alone. We regularly see deals in categories where:
Competitors are active, but no one knows the true TAM
Customer buying behavior varies wildly by segment
Market structure doesn’t show up in industry codes or databases
That’s when building your own demand map becomes essential. It’s not just about validating the deal—it’s about avoiding false positives. Without a grounded view, it’s easy to overestimate demand, misread margin potential, or chase segments that won’t scale.
Custom diligence doesn’t mean overcomplicating. It means designing the minimum viable fact base that can support a yes or no.
In a market where capital is tightening and diligence windows are shorter, knowing when to build the data is a competitive edge.
Ground-Up Insight for Low-Data Deals
At Maven, we specialize in bringing structure to markets that lack it. Whether it’s a platform in a fragmented sector, a niche service model without benchmarks, or a growth story with no clean comps, we help investors see the market clearly—and act decisively.
In the Solid Surface Care engagement, there were no reports to summarize. We built the fact base from scratch, helping Angeles validate the opportunity and guide the post-close plan.
What sets our approach apart:
We don’t rely on third-party data When the data isn’t there, we construct it—using scraping, buyer proxies, and segment-level logic to build credible, actionable models.
We break down demand by decision driver We size markets the way sales teams go after them, with real-world segmentation and margin sensitivity built in.
We focus on execution, not just insight Our work supports diligence, but it also informs Day One priorities and go-to-market moves.
When the data’s messy or missing, we help clients build the model they need to move forward.
This is What We Do
We work with mid-market investors and management teams when the stakes are high and the data is unclear. That might mean building a market model from scratch, pressure-testing a platform thesis, or turning a segment map into a go-to-market plan.
Our role is to bring clarity to complex questions—and to help deal teams move from thesis to execution.
Here’s where we focus:
Market insight and commercial strategy When you need to validate demand, size a niche, or build the roadmap post-close.
Answering deal- or decision-critical questions We dig into the assumptions that matter most—whether it’s a TAM, a segment bet, or an expansion play.
Execution-oriented support Helping investors and operators turn insight into action, with models that translate directly to real-world moves.
We’re not here to summarize data. We’re here to help teams build the model that gets the deal done—and drives value after close.
If you ever want to talk through a deal or strategy initiative you can DM me here on LinkedIn or go to https://maven-associates.com/contact-us/
Client Spotlight: Matt Smalley, Cambridge Capital
This month’s spotlight features Matt Smalley, Partner at Cambridge Capital, a specialized investment firm focused exclusively on software and services businesses across the supply chain.
Cambridge worked with Maven on a post-close engagement to help a portfolio company expand beyond a dominant core customer and align leadership around a clear, actionable growth strategy. The work combined market sizing, go-to-market prioritization, and hands-on facilitation to help the team move from debate to execution.
You can read Matt’s full perspective on Cambridge’s investment approach and the engagement with Maven here:
Read the full client spotlight on the Maven website →
In mid-market investing, the biggest risks often come from what’s missing—especially when entering markets without clear data or benchmarks.
The firms that get it right are the ones willing to pause, pressure-test, and build the fact base before committing capital.
If you’re looking at a platform in a fragmented or under-mapped market, and the data isn’t there—or isn’t telling the full story—we’d be glad to talk it through.
Thanks for reading, and as always, we appreciate your partnership.
Onward,
Mark Hess
Founder, Maven Associates
https://maven-associates.com/
A question for readers
In deals like this, we’re often asked to build the market view from scratch rather than rely on existing data.
If you’ve encountered a situation where the hardest part of diligence was proving the market — not evaluating the company — I’d be curious how you approached it. Feel free to leave a comment if it’s useful to share.
Feel free to share
If this was useful, you’re welcome to share it with a colleague or forward it to someone who’s thinking through a similar question.